Are some countries more genetically inclined towards capitalism than others?

Claiming that there is a link between genetics and the economic system of a country will no doubt strike you as a preposterous hypothesis*.

I admit I’m skeptical about the following argument. But even if it’s wrong, at least it’s interesting. Here goes:

1) People who are more likely to support business and a capitalist system – entrepreneurs, inventors, investors and company CEOs – are deluded. They think the chances of their business, invention and investment being successful are much higher than they actually statistically are. They are overconfident and overoptimistic. They are willing to take more risks than is rationally justified. It’s probably a good thing some people are like this, otherwise the pace of technological creation and innovation would likely be much slower. But overoptimism also contributed to the housing bubble that contributed to the current economic crisis.

The thing is, most people are overly optimistic and overestimate their own abilities. One famous example is an American study where 90% of drivers believed their driving skills were ‘above average’. (See here and here for more examples, and buy Daniel Kahneman’s excellent book which covers a whole range of topics on human (ir)rationality and behavioural economics). But people who are more overoptimistic are more likely to become entrepreneurs.

2) Variation in how optimistic someone is, is significantly influenced by genetics; one study of Australian twins puts the genetic contribution at 36%. So environmental factors have an influence of around 64%.

3) Immigrants, given that they are taking a risk to move from one country to another, must be reasonably optimistic that they can make a success for themselves in a new country. They’re taking a risk by giving up everything that they know for a new culture (and possibly new language). This risk-taking certainly seems indicative of a mind-set similar to those of entrepreneurs, and there is strong evidence (see here and here) that many immigrants are indeed the entrepreneurial (genetic?) type, at least in America.

4) This implies that there is a genetic inclination towards capitalistic behaviour accumulating in certain countries. Perhaps countries such as America, which were founded by immigrants relatively recently, and continue to welcome them, have capitalism in their blood.

There are of course problems with this. It’s possible to find polls that purport to show that Americans are generally more optimistic than Europeans, but this is more easily explained by environmental rather than genetic factors (it might simply be that Americans feel cultural pressure to tell people, including pollsters, that they believe their life is improving, even if they secretly don’t believe this). Until there are more studies that look at genetic differences, this argument will have to remain a mere hypothesis.

If evidence for the link between genetics and inclination towards a particular economic system strengthens, and if it becomes possible for parents to select which genes they want their child to have, then one day we may find parents imposing their economic beliefs on their children not just by controlling the environment they grow up in, but also by controlling their genetics.

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* Did Steve tell you that, perchance?

The Eugenic Self-Extinction of Social Conservatism

A recent book by Chris Mooney argues that there is a neurological basis as to why many supporters of the American Republican Party seem to “believe more wrong things; appear more likely than Democrats to oppose new ideas and less likely to change their beliefs in the face of new facts; and sometimes respond to compelling evidence by doubling down on their current beliefs.”

I have not yet read this book. As such, I may be misrepresenting the views of the author, but based on the book description, it seems to me that his arguments are primarily targetted at the social conservatives in the Republican Party, rather the economic conservatives whose concern is limiting the size of the state (i.e what those outside the US would call supporters of economic liberalism).

This distinction is important. Economics is not a science; it is an art. There is no clear consensus on what is the best economic theory, partly because what one considers ‘best’ depends on your values. But even if one shares the same values, one can disagree with the means of promoting them. Strong rational arguments can be put forward for both reducing state investment and increasing it, if your agreed aim is promote economic growth. But interpretation of economic evidence is often confounded by too many variables to support one economic theory over another, at least not with the same level of confidence as one would need to reasonably support a scientific theory.

Mooney’s arguments may extend to more extreme economic theories. The book description claims he considers “why Republicans reject the widely accepted findings of mainstream science, economics, and history”. But non-mainstream economic theories exist at both ends of the economic-political spectrum. I suspect many Marxists are “less likely to change their beliefs in the face of new facts” just as much as many libertarians. (Though it should be said that someone adhering to non-mainstream economic theories does not necessarily mean they dogmatically ignore new facts. They could be right, and it’s actually the mainstream who have overlooked/ignored some essential facts).

Eugenics then. Where does this come into it? Well, let’s assume that Mooney is correct in claiming that there is a neurological/psychological basis for our political beliefs. Apparently “people more wedded to certainty tend to become conservatives; people craving novelty, liberals”. If one’s neurology influences one’s political outlook, it seems reasonable to infer there is also a genetic influence of one’s political outlook. I am not suggesting that anyone is born a Tory, Democrat, Liberal, Republican, Socialist etc. Clearly, one’s education, experience and upbringing play a hugely significant role. But genes will play a part too. [UPDATE: On his blog, Mooney does indeed list studies that suggest a varying degree of genetic influence on political preference]

Over the next few decades, it is possible that parents will, to an extent, be able to choose certain characteristics of their children. This could be done by using pre-implantation genetic screening of IVF embryos and selecting those embryos with the desired traits. Or it could be done by genetically engineering one embryo and inserting the genes for the traits the parents desire, rather than selecting from a group of embryos.

Social liberals are, apparently, more likely to “crave novelty”. Social conservatives are more likely to be “wedded to certainty”*. Historically, this can especially been seen with regards to changing attitudes towards sexuality and new reproductive technologies: consider the different stances on contraception, homosexuality, IVF, abortion. Thus, it seems likely that most social conservatives will strongly oppose using genetic engineering or embryo selection. Social liberals may be more willing to use it. If so, and they are able to select traits that they find valuable, they may seek to select genes that will encourage a socially liberal outlook. This could involve selecting genes that boost intelligence, since it appears that low intelligence, mediated via socially conservative ideology, predicts greater racism. But it could also mean selecting genes that directly influence one’s political leanings. Perhaps the genes involved in ‘craving novelty’ or being ‘wedded to uncertainty’ are related to having an appropriate development of fear responses; i.e not fearing someone merely because they belong to a new group whose clothes/language/culture/sexuality is unknown to you.

If this sort of selection occurs, then social liberals will essentially be self-promoting, and will thus increase their way of thinking within the population by having kids that are genetically inclined to think their way. Social conservatives, who won’t select for traits they desire because they generally have more ‘fear/distrust’ of the technology, will not enhance the social conservative genetic mindset. Any children they have will not deliberately be selected for conservative thinking. Thus, such children may grow up in a society that is increasingly overwhelmingly socially liberal. The liberal mindset will become the new social norm and any such children of conservatives will increasingly accept the liberal ‘status quo’; including the use of genetic technologies, perpetuating the selection of liberal ideals. Social conservatism as we know it will be extinct.

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*Socially conservative attitudes can occur across the economic political spectrum. For example, I suspect there are a number of socialists who would oppose any reform or reduction of the welfare state or (in the UK) of the privatisation of the National Health Service, even if there was strong evidence that such reform would benefit those who use such services.  This can be considered socially conservative just as much as those who consider themselves to be politically right-wing and are socially conservative in a religious or cultural sense.